in 1992, the incumbent president was down nine points in mid-september, tied with bill clinton by the end of october, though clinton eventually won. a former clinton pollster is questioning the assumptions being made in today's polls. >> these polls are assuming that you have the same high level of african american, latino, and young people vote in 2012 that you had in 2008. >> obama campaign senior advisor david axelrod told fox, "public polls are widely variant in their sampling and methodology so it's hard to case when they all point in one direction they're all wrong, but we are planning for a close race as we always have." another democratic strategist offered this assessment -- >> the race isn't over. look, this thing can move back and forth three or four times between now and november 6th. if i'm romney, you try to create that momentum. he saw a sign to do it. >> of the eight presidential races in the past 10 where the leads were cut or flipped by the opponent, the average of the comebacks was roughly 5%. in some cases it was a debate that moved the needle. harris? >> mike, tha